Bulgaria vs Spain: prediction & betting odds 4 September 2025

The Matchday 5 World Cup 2026 qualifying clash between Bulgaria and Spain will take place on September 4 at the Vasil Levski Stadium in Sofia. Bulgaria vs. Spain: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Bulgaria

For the team, the journey in this World Cup qualification is just beginning. In the previous qualification, Bulgaria performed poorly, finishing fourth in their group. The team collected eight points and scored only six goals, surpassing only Lithuania in the standings. Overall, Bulgaria has only two wins in their last 11 World Cup qualifying matches (3 draws, 6 losses). Notably, the team has not qualified for the World Cup in the 21st century.

• The team won in regular time in 6 of their last 9 home matches in World Cup qualification.
• The team did not concede more than one goal in 90 minutes in 9 of their last 13 home matches in Euro qualification.
• Bulgaria scored in regular time in 7 of their last 9 home World Cup qualifying matches.

Predicted lineup for Bulgaria (4-5-1)

Dimitar Mitov – Fabian Nurnberger, Anton Nedyalkov, Hristiyan Petrov, Nikolay Minkov – Ilia Gruev, Ivaylo Chochev, Martin Petkov, Georgi Milanov, Kiril Despodov – Aleksandar Kolev.

Spain

The team is also just starting its qualification campaign. In the previous qualification, Spain confidently took first place in their group, finishing four points ahead of Sweden, who came second. However, in the main tournament, the team was eliminated in the round of 16, losing to Morocco (0-1). Spain boasts 14 wins in their last 16 World Cup qualifying matches (1 draw, 1 loss). Additionally, the team has not conceded in their last four Euro qualification matches.

• The team won in regular time in 7 of their last 8 away World Cup qualifying matches.
• The team scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 90 minutes in 10 of their last 11 away Euro qualification matches.
• No more than one goal was scored in the second half in 5 of Spain's last 7 away World Cup qualifying matches.

Predicted lineup for Spain (4-3-3)

Unai Simon – Pedro Porro, Robin Le Normand, Pau Cubarsi, Marc Cucurella – Pedri, Martin Zubimendi, Rodri Hernandez – Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams.

Midfielders Gavi and Fabian Ruiz are out of the squad due to injuries.

Referee

Srdjan Jovanovic (Serbia)

Matches – 8 (International matches, 2023/24–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 28;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.5;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 18;

Penalties – 25%.

Match Prediction: Bulgaria vs. Spain

Although Bulgaria generally does not perform well in World Cup qualification, they show decent results at home. In their last nine home matches in this qualification, the team secured six victories, with two of the three losses coming against top opponents – France (0-1) and Italy (0-2). Moreover, Bulgaria has not suffered a heavy home defeat in World Cup qualification since 2005.

Spain consistently achieves results away from home, rarely dropping points. However, the team seldom manages to secure a significant lead: in their last 11 away World Cup qualifying matches, the team has won nine times, with only Liechtenstein losing by more than two goals.

I expect the hosts will avoid a heavy defeat. My prediction: Bulgaria with a handicap (+2.5)